人民币升值能改变中国的贸易顺差吗

本文使用非线性平滑转换模型研究了人民币升值对我国贸易顺差的动态影响,研究发现在样本时期内非线性模型能更好地拟合两者的动态关系,在非线性条件下,当期人民币升值将会使贸易顺差增加,前两期人民币升值将会导致当期贸易顺差减少,人民币升值对贸易顺差的影响表现出很强的非线性门限特征。人民币汇率对贸易差额影响的时间路径像是一个"倒J-曲线"。2000年以来人民币汇率虽然一直在发挥着降低贸易顺差的作用,但是,人民币汇率不是贸易顺差形成的主要原因。     

Estimating demand curve in the Korean VoIP telecommunications market

The VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol) market in Korea is showing rapid growth since domestic carriers initiated the service in 2006. These carriers are now seeking new revenue sources from various convergence services and are increasing investment into VoIP. In particular, local exchange carriers (LECs), formerly reluctant to invest in technologies that would cannibalize their local telephone revenue, have started to invest in VoIP, in recognition of the current convergence of media and the telecommunications industry, as well as in the face of intensifying competition. In this study, we determined that VoIP call rates and landline telephony call rates were the most important factors affecting VoIP call demand, in addition to network externality. We also verified that landline telephony is no longer a supplement to VoIP, but rather, a substitute that has considerable influence on VoIP call demand. Empirical evidence is expected to be considered in policy decision making on current issues in the IT industry, such as access prices or competitiveness assessment. The current empirical analysis on the Korean VoIP industry and the adherence to lessons learned from policy enforcement should provide valuable information to countries seeking to develop their own VoIP industries, as well as to businesses developing new strategies based on the VoIP market.     

汇率冲击与外汇储备对人民币国际化的动态影响——基于IS-LM-EE模型和SVAR的实证分析

本文基于IS-LM-EE模型构建了汇率冲击效应的理论模型,并利用SVAR方法对1996~2010年的月度时间序列数据,从国际贸易规模、人民币价值稳定、金融业发展三个方面研究了汇率和外汇储备冲击对人民币国际化的动态影响。分析结果表明,短期内人民币渐进和小幅升值虽然给国际贸易带来负面冲击,然而长期内这不仅有利于出口导向型发展模式的转变和国际收支的再平衡,而且也有助于实现低通货膨胀率和人民币的内外价值稳定。此外,外汇储备累积通过货币供给、利率、银行利差等渠道对人民币价值稳定及其国际化形成不可忽略的负面冲击。     

通货膨胀、劳动力市场与工资率走势

当前的通货膨胀,属内外结合的复合型通胀。本文提出劳动年龄人口供给变动的三个阶段：第一阶段是2010年以前的总体过剩阶段,表现为劳动力买方市场,工资率被人为压低;第二阶段是劳动年龄人口占比越过峰值,但尚未达到绝对数量峰值,劳动力市场由供大于求向供求平衡转变,工资率处于劳资博弈状态;第三阶段是2017年以后,即占比和绝对数量总体短缺阶段,工资率将呈持续上涨趋势。当前处于第二阶段,由于劳动年龄人口供大于求的逐步结束和工资欠账较多,工资率理应有一个较大幅度的提升;不过要适度,因为总体上还处于劳动力由供大于求向供求平衡转变;更要着眼于实际工资的提升,因为仅仅名义工资的提升是有害的,对通胀治理不利。     

央行和商业银行视角下存款准备金率的实证分析

本文分别从央行货币政策调控目标和商业银行对存款准备金率容忍度的视角出发,利用参数法和神经网络模型对存款准备金率进行实证分析。研究发现,央行近年来多次上调存款准备金率主要是为了对抗通货膨胀以及回收货币流动性。在不考虑银行容忍度下,参数模型给出的目标存款准备金率为23%,而在考虑了存款准备金率对银行的负面影响后,根据神经网络模型得出2011年上半年合理的存款准备金率应为21.34%,与当前21.5%的实际存款准备金率相符。说明央行在货币调控时考虑到了银行的容忍度,是符合宏观审慎性原则的。而模型的敏感性分析表明,未来存款准备金率仍旧存在上调的区间与上调的可能性。     

公司债定价：首中时模型的蒙特卡罗实现

论文借鉴信用风险度量的首中时结构模型,通过该模型的蒙特卡罗模拟对我国公司债进行定价,同时探讨了拟合公司债价值最佳的违约回复率设定和动态波动率的模型选择问题。研究表明首中时模型用于公司债定价是可行的,且不同的债券确实存在不同的回复率,并且对同一公司的不同债券使用同样的回复率也是不准确的,另外论文也进一步肯定了GARCH（1,1）模型在估计波动率方面的适用性。     

从国际货币体系的演变历史谈“碳货币”本位的全新国际货币体系构建设想

面对美国次贷危机引发的全球金融海啸所突显出的信用本位制下无约束的货币泛滥,碳货币既是当前低碳经济背景下具有国际意义的热点问题之一,更是事关未来国际货币体系发展的关键所在,本文则从全球碳交易体系的货币视角提出了"碳货币"本位的全新货币体系的构建设想。     

Estimating the equity premium

Accurate estimation of the equity premium (the expected difference between the returns to a well-diversified stock market portfolio and a riskfree asset) is of central importance in many applications of finance theory including project appraisal and portfolio selection. The standard approach is to take the average observed excess returns to the market over some recent time period (sometimes referred to as the ex post equity premium) and apply this as an unbiased estimate of the ex ante equity premium. The paper reviews the problems associated with such an approach and contrasts it with alternative theoretical techniques.     

Kalecki on money and finance

It is argued that Kalecki had a greater appreciation of the role of the monetary sector than has been generally recognized, and that Kalecki presented ideas which can be seen as now embedded in the structuralist post Keynesian analysis of endogenous money and in the circuitist approach. Six key features of Kalecki's monetary analysis are identified. The paper outlines Kalecki's dismissal of the ‘Pigou effect’ and the ‘Keynes effect’, and then discussion the relationship between the ‘principle of increasing risk’ and the nature of the supply of credit. It discusses interest determination in Kalecki's writings and the manner in which he distinguished different types of money.     

引入人口结构和社会保障因素的中国储蓄率模型

在对国民储蓄率的影响因素进行分析后,对经典的生命周期模型进行了拓展,引入了人口结构和社会保障两因素,从而构建了一个新的生命周期模型。在此基础上,对我国的国民储蓄率进行实证研究后发现,我国的人口结构确实会对国民储蓄率产生较显著的影响,而社会保障水平却对其影响不显著。